Accurate Natural Hazard Forecasting

On any given project, In Harm’s Way determines which areas are most at risk of tsunami disasters through a combination of compiling historical records and geological evidence of past earthquake and tsunami events. These data are used to construct seismic hazard and tsunami inundation maps that inform those in harm’s way what is likely to happen. Steps include:

Parameterize earthquakes and tsunamis from historical accounts to identify source regions and determine which areas are most exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards.

Conduct geological and geophysical analysis of tsunami source regions and investigate the long-term slip history of active faults.
Locate tsunami deposits to determine the extent of inundations of populated coastal regions from past tsunami events.

Construct numerical models of likely tsunami scenarios to estimate locations of source regions and magnitudes of past earthquake events, and to inform tsunami inundation risk analysis.

Construct tsunami inundation maps constrained by analysis of tsunami deposits and numerical modeling that predict which coastal areas are most at risk.

Education & Communication

‘In Harm’s Way’ provides specific natural hazards education to villagers who live in the communities where the organization is doing its forecasting research. We accomplish this education by the following:

Communicating with local leaders and organizations and collaborating with them to set up natural hazards education meetings for the community

Conducting natural hazards education meetings for the locals providing training on how to prepare, how to recognize warning signs, how to react and how to survive afterwards. Education materials are provided in the native language that they can take home and use to teach their families, prepare their homes and create family emergency preparedness plans.

Providing trainings of local experts on how to protect those in their communities that are in the most danger of these natural hazards.

Providing tuition scholarships for locals interested in natural disaster risk reduction to attend a local college and pursue a degree in geologic studies focused on natural hazards.

Pursuing the establishment of warning networks through existing and readily available telecommunication systems to notify civilians in specific geographical areas when a hazard is approaching and therefore minimize impact on emergency services needed after the event.

Implementation

Conducting earthquake drills in seismically active regions to help everyone understand how to survive an earthquake.

Conducting evacuation drills planned by local experts to get people in coastal communities out of harms way from tsunami or sever storms.

Providing tsunami warning and evacuation signs to increase awareness of the link between feeling an earthquake and immediately evacuating to high ground.

Marking safe zones above the levels of likely tsunami inundation.

Providing educational incentives — such as tuition support — for those in threatened communities to receive a college education that results in natural disaster risk reduction in their communities.

Involving youth and students in activities that make their homes and schools more disaster resistant.

Assisting communities to develop and implement a disaster risk reduction plan.

All these efforts are in collaboration with local villagers and experts so they are able to be self-reliant and function independently to continue implementation projects and trainings after In Harm’s Way leaves. This empowers families and individuals to continue building resilience and protect themselves and their families.